There has been much speculation that the (great) distress in the economy means that major health care reform is unlikely in the coming years. In addition, with health care representing over $2 trillion in the economy - that means there are $2 trillion reasons some interest or other will resist change. While crystal balls are always fuzzy, when I look at the magic eight ball - “all signs point to yes.” What follow are my nine reasons why health reform will happen in 2009 (with thanks and credit to Chris Jennings of Jennings and Associates).

1. Health care IS a core economic issue. Rather than seeing the major economic problems as reasons not to address health care, there are good reasons to see this are a reason TO address health care — and this is being reinforced by leading economists such as Henry Paulsen, Ben Bernanke and incoming economist heavy weights in the new administration such as Peter Orszag (who will take over the Office of Management and Budget) and Tim Geithner (incoming Treasury Secretary).

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The dust is quickly settling on the collapsed nomination of Tom Daschle to head both HHS and the White House Office of Health Reform.  Apart from the pervasive chatter about Daschle’s problematic tax and business dealings, and about the President’s appointments process - what does Daschle’s departure mean for those of us focused on improving the health care system?

Let’s keep our eyes on the prize – transforming an inefficient and ineffectual health care enterprise into a dynamic, responsive, and effective one.  Tom Daschle’s insights really did make him well-suited to the leadership role.  We should do well to keep these at the forefront in forging ahead to address health care’s shortfalls.

First, Daschle understood the nature of the interlocking drivers that maintain our system as-is.  His book, Critical, underscores that there are many forces that shape our health care and these same forces  — aka “special interests” — reinforce and perpetuate each other.  There’s not one glaring culprit to point the finger at.

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